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 Predicting anime industry trends is really no different from any other sort of trend. It's all a lot of educated guesswork. Okay, maybe I'm oversimplifying a bit, but sometimes I think I'd be just as successful if I tried it with only a Ouija Board, a twenty-sided die, and a stack of Ho-Hos as research tools. That's just how I feel about it. Well, normally anyway. But I've noticed (and had pointed out to me) a somewhat disturbing trend in
the American anime industry. Quite simply, there's just not enough space
for anime in the current market. When was the last time you were at your
local store that carried anime for sale? Chances are that the same amount
of shelf space is devoted to anime that was a year ago, or even longer.
Yet, in the last year, many many new tapes have come out. So if your
favorite store carries all the volumes of EVANGELION currently available,
that means that there is room for ten less tapes. So, quite simply, when the
American companies continue to release anime when retailers do not increase
retail shelf space, they wind up competing with their own preexisting
products.Domestic releases of anime seem to be down in 1998 compared to 1997. Just
judging by the amount of screeners we receive, and from the information
provided in the release lists, the American companies seem to be pulling
back a bit. Also, announcement of new licenses seems to have pretty much
ground to a halt (even though it is rumored that some companies are
sitting on titles).And why not? Amidst all the problems with retail space and licensing fees
going through the roof, there is another lurker in the shadows—Hollywood.
Everyone is waiting to see how the American release of MONONOKE HIME fares
when it is released in October. (The July release has been pushed back).
This is similar to what happened in 1995 with GHOST IN THE SHELL, but this
time the stakes are higher. This time, a major Hollywood studio will be
distributing the film. If successful, Hollywood could turn its eye on the
vast library of anime titles that are still unlicensed and, in all
likelihood, drive prices out of the range of the companies that currently
deal in anime.Basically, the whole thing is like a fish tank. Yes, a fish tank. You have
a certain amount of space that can support a certain amount of life.
Overcrowding eventually leads to the death of some of the fish. And a new,
larger fish introduced into an already-established tank can easily upset the
balance and become a bully or even a predator.No one knows if Hollywood's current liking for anime is going to be a
lasting trend or a short-lived fad. Either way, you can be sure that there
will be ramifications felt throughout fandom and the American anime
industry. I'd ask the Ouija board, but I ate the HoHos while writing this
column. Maybe this trend analysis stuff is hard work after all.
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  Charles McCarter
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